USDA Forecasts Record Soybean Crop

• 13 Aug, 2024
• United States

USDA on Monday forecast a record soybean crop while also bumping up corn production.

Farmers will grow a record soybean crop at 4.589 billion bushels (bb), above the range of pre-report estimates. USDA increased its planted and harvested acreage forecast by 1 million acres each after reviewing acreage data. The agency's yield forecast also increased to 53.2 bushels per acre. Ending stocks of 560 million bushels (mb) for the 2024-25 season is the highest in six years.

USDA bumped up corn production for the 2024-25 crop to 15.147 billion bushels by raising yield estimates to a record 183.1 bushels per acre (bpa).

USDA released its August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Monday.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Monday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and neutral to bullish for wheat. Meanwhile, world ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn and wheat but bearish for soybeans, Hultman said.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from today's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

You can also view the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA lowered planted acres 800,000 acres to 90.7 million acres while also lowering projected harvest acres by 700,000 acres to 82.7 million acres.

But USDA also increased the national corn yield 2.1 bushels per acre to a record 183.1 bpa.

Corn production is projected at 15.147 billion bushels, up 47 mb from July.

For demand, USDA projected total Feed and Residual use at 5.825 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 with a 15 mb decline in Food, Seed & Industrial use.

Exports for the 2024-25 crop are forecast at 2.3 bb, up 75 mb from July.

Ending stocks for the new crop are projected at 2.073 bb, a decline of 24 mb from July.

The farm gate price for 2024-25 is projected at $4.20 a bushel, a 10-cent decline from July.

Looking at the 2023-24 "old crop," ending stocks are pegged at 1.867 bb, down 10 mb. That dropped the carryover of beginning stocks as well.

Globally, USDA pegs 2024-25 production at 1,219.82 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.97 mmt from July. Global ending stocks were pegged at 310.17 mmt, down 1.47 mmt. USDA pegs 2024-25 Brazilian corn production at 127 mmt and Argentina at 51 mmt.

For the global 2023-24 crop, ending stocks are pegged at 308.52, down 0.61 mmt from July. USDA also held Brazil's 2023-24 production at 122 mmt. Exports remain pegged at 50 mmt. USDA lowered Argentina's production to 50 mmt. Export volume was lowered to 35 mmt.

SOYBEANS

Farmers will grow a record soybean crop at 4.589 billion bushels, above the range of pre-report estimates. USDA increased its planted and harvested acreage forecast by 1 million acres each after reviewing acreage data. The agency's yield forecast also increased to 53.2 bushels per acre.

Ending stocks for the new-crop, 2024-25 marketing year are forecast at 560 mb, the highest in six years. USDA increased production estimates by 154 mb. On the demand side, crush was left unchanged while export forecasts increased 25 mb. Residual use was up 4 mb, resulting in total demand increase of 29 mb from last month.

The national average farm gate price fell, reflecting higher ending stocks. It's now $10.80 per bushel, down 30 cents from last month's report.

Globally, world ending stocks for the 2024-25 season soared alongside higher U.S. crop estimates. At 134.3 million metric tons, USDA's estimate topped the highest pre-report trade guess by 3.8 mmt.

USDA left 2023-24 soybean production in Brazil unchanged at 153 mmt, despite lingering discrepancies with Brazilian crop forecaster CONAB. Argentina's estimate was lowered by 0.5 mmt to 49 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA lowered its forecast for wheat production to 1.98 billion bushels, a 26 mb cut, after reducing planted acreage to 46.3 million and harvested acres to 37.9 million. Both are a 900,000-acre reduction from previous estimates. Nationally, yields are expected to average 52.2 bushels per acre.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 bb, with yields of 53.2 bpa. Hard red winter wheat production, at 776 mb, is up 2% from last month. Soft red winter wheat production is down less than 1% from last month at 342 mb. Hard white winter wheat is forecast to be at 19.3 mb and soft white at 224 mb. Durum production is forecast at 76.9 mb with a national average yield of 38.1 bpa. Farmers are expected to grow 544 mb of spring wheat with an average yield of 52.6 bpa.

USDA lowered wheat stocks by 28 million bushels to 828 mb, reflecting lower production estimates and a slight bump in seed use. The national average farm gate price was unchanged from last month at $5.70 per bushel.

Globally, world wheat production for 2024-25 was pegged at 798.28 mmt, up 2.09 mmt from July. Global exports were projected at 214.86 mmt, up 1.97 mmt from last month. Global wheat ending stocks were projected at 256.62 mmt, down 0.62 mmt. Russia's production was projected at 83 mmt and the European Union was 128 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

Monday's WASDE report was supportive to both the cattle and beef markets, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. Beef production for 2024 was raised by 81 million pounds, as production for both fed steers and heifers and cows is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year than originally anticipated. Feedlot operators should be encouraged by the forecast in quarterly steer prices, as in 2024, steer prices are expected to average $193 (up $3 from last month), and in the fourth quarter, steers prices are expected to average $190 (up $2 from last month). Steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $189 (up $1 from last month) and the second quarter is expected to average $190 (which is unchanged from a month ago). 2024 beef imports were raised by 42 million pounds, but beef exports for 2024 were also increased 32 million pounds as global demand remains strong.

Monday's WASDE report was a mixed report for both the pork and hog markets. 2024 pork production was decreased by 91 million pounds, as slaughter speeds are expected to be reduced in the third quarter, and dressed weights are projected to be lighter as well. Quarter price projections were a mixed bag for the hog complex as prices in the third quarter of 2024 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago), but prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $53 (up $1 from last month). Unfortunately, price projections for 2025 were decreased as the first quarter of 2025 is expected to average $55 (down $1), and the second quarter of 2024 is expected to average $61 (down $1). 2024 pork imports were decreased by 25 million pounds, but pork exports also fell by 125 million pounds.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Monday, Aug. 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates and explain other market aspects. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Monday's August WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul	2023-24
Corn	15,146	15,103	15,284	14,920	15,100	15,342
Soybeans	4,589	4,469	4,537	4,396	4,435	4,165
All Wheat	1,982	2,016	2,035	1,982	2,008	1,812
Winter	1,361	1,348	1,396	1,329	1,342	1,248
HRW	776	766	788	755	763	601
SRW	342	345	349	340	344	449
White	288	237	280	224	234	198
Other Spring	544	580	600	540	578	505
Durum	77	90	95	88	89	59
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	1,867	1,882	1,977	1,825	1,877
Soybeans	345	347	360	332	345
Wheat	702	702	705	702	702
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	2,074	2,092	2,295	1,987	2,097
Soybeans	560	472	540	396	435
Wheat	828	860	876	830	856
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	308.5	309.7	313.5	308.0	309.1
Soybeans	112.4	110.9	112.5	108.8	111.3
Wheat	262.4	261.0	262.0	260.0	261.0
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	310.2	311.2	315.0	307.0	311.6
Soybeans	134.3	127.6	130.5	125.6	127.8
Wheat	256.6	257.3	260.0	254.0	257.2

 

Source: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2024/08/12/usda-releases-august-crop-production