India 2018-19 mustard output seen at 7.3 mln tn

• 15 Feb, 2019
• India

India's mustard output is seen at 7.33 mln tn in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), according to the average of the estimates of 12 market participants. The projection is 6.2% higher than last year's estimate of 6.90 mln tn, primarily due to higher acreage and largely favourable weather conditions. 

The view of the market participants is less optimistic than the government's target of 8.50 mln tn for 2018-19. The government's fourth advanced estimate for the mustard crop in 2017-18 was 8.3 mln tn.

All the participants in the poll–10 key edible oil companies and two brokerage houses–expect a larger mustard crop this year.

Production estimates for 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) ranged between 6.90 mln tn and 8.00 mln tn, up from last year's estimates of 6.30-7.40 mln tn.According to data by the farm ministry, farmers in the country have planted mustard over 6.94 mln ha so far, up 3.4% on year.

"Weather was favourable for higher yields, winter rains were adequate, day and night temperatures were within the required range and there was no report of any pest attack in large scale," Mustard Oil Producers Association of India General Secretary Jyoti Kanda Aggarwal said.

Some cases of hailstorm and frost were reported in isolated parts in northwest and central  India, but no major damage has been observed so far, GG Patel & Nikhil Research Co Managing Partner Govind Bhai Patel said.

"Rains in the last two months have boosted the productivity. Even it resulted in higher oil content in the mustard seed. The new crop is of good quality," an official with a leading US-based agricultural firm said.

At 8.00 mln tn, the highest estimate for the total mustard crop in the country was by Angel Commodities. This is close to the farm ministry's target of 8.50 mln tn for 2018-19, against 8.30 mln tn harvested last year.  

The primary reason for the large crop is higher area under mustard in Rajasthan, the largest grower, agricultural scientists said. In 2018-19, farmers in the state have sown the crop over 19% more area at 2.50 mln ha, the farm ministry data showed.

Mustard output in the state is seen higher at 3.20 mln tn this year compared with 2.90 mln tn in 2017-18, said Aggarwal.

The new crop has started trickling in some spot markets in southern Rajasthan and arrivals would begin in full swing from March and shrink from June. 

Mustard, a crucial rabi oilseed, is sown during Sep-Oct and harvested from February. It accounts for 25% of the country's total oilseed production and about 80% of the rabi oilseed basket.

    Summary of the Cogencis poll on India 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) mustard output: 
* Range of expectations: 6.90-8.00 mlntn for 2018-19, against 6.30-7.40 mln tn for 2017-18
* Mean: 7.33 mlntn vs 6.90 mln tn
* Median: 7.38 mlntn vs 7.00 mln tn
* Mode: 7.50 mlntn vs 7.00 mln tn

The acreage estimates by polled entities:

 

 

 

Poll participants	Mustard area 2018-19 (in mln tn)	Mustard area 2017-18 (in mln tn)
GG Patel and Nikhil Research Co	7.20-7.50	7.00
Solvent Extractors Association of India	7.00	6.80
Vijay Solvex	7.50	7.00
Sunvin Group	7.10	6.60
Singapore-based edible oil company	7.50	7.00
Harish Exim	7.20-7.30	6.80-6.90
Angel Commodities	8.00	7.30-7.50
Mustard Oil Producers Association of India	7.50	7.00
Marudhar Trading Agency	7.40	7.00
Multinational edible oil firm	6.90	6.30
US-based agri business firm	7.00	6.60
Kedia Commodity Comtrade	7.30-7.50	7.20

 

Source: http://www.cogencis.com/newssection/cogencis-poll-india-2018-19-mustard-output-seen-at-7-3-mln-tn/